The idea behind the Tokyo range
Liquidity increases around the Tokyo open, especially in yen pairs. The hypothesis is that a break of the 09:00–10:00 JST range can continue during the remainder of the local session.
Rules fixed before the calculation
The range uses four M15 candles from 09:00 to 10:00 JST. The first close beyond it triggers an entry at the next candle open. The stop is on the opposite side, the target is 1.5R, and any open trade closes at 15:00.
Detailed example of one trade
The candlestick chart shows one selected trade at a time—not all 646. Use the five buttons to compare a profitable trade, a stop-loss, a session-close exit, a long trade and a short trade. The equity curve below covers the complete sample.
USD/JPY · M15 · Asia/Tokyo
2024-01-23 · BID
How to read this chart
- 01Look here
Choose one of the five trades. The shaded interval is the opening range; follow the entry and exit markers in time.
- 02Compare
Compare that one candle sequence with the equity curve below, which includes all 646 eligible trades.
- 03Conclude
Check the yearly rows and the cost-adjusted total before deciding whether an attractive breakout example reflects the complete test.
What the complete sample found
Across 646 trades, the win rate was 44.6% and the profit factor was 0.86. After deducting modelled round-trip costs of 1.2 pips, the test lost 30.15R and the $10,000 model finished at $7,265.69.
Final value
10,000 USD · 1% · Costs included
| Year | Trades | Win rate | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 238 | 40.3% | -22.00R |
| 2025 | 241 | 51.0% | +13.77R |
| 2026 | 167 | 41.3% | -21.91R |
Why one year can mislead
The result changed sharply by year: 2025 was profitable, while 2024 and 2026 were negative. Range width, news, holidays, spread and the choice of exit can all alter the distribution.
Transparent failure is useful evidence
This exact rule set did not produce a robust edge in the tested period. Its value is educational: it shows why session logic, costs and out-of-sample stability must be measured before a visual setup is trusted.
Methodology and data
Signal at the M15 close; entry at the next bar open; the stop is assumed to trigger first if stop and target fall inside the same bar; 1% of equity is risked per trade.