Solana price forecast 2027–2030: VanEck scenarios versus newer 21Shares valuations

We use original research issued by VanEck and 21Shares, with the publication date, time horizon and type of estimate attached to each number. VanEck’s October 2023 paper models prices in 2030. A separate 21Shares exercise published in October 2025 estimates fair value using discounted cash flows, but does not label its $776–$2,274 figures as end-2030 targets.

A January 2026 21Shares outlook gives ranges for potential intrayear peaks in 2026. That is not a year-end 2030 forecast either. We include it to show how a later, much shorter horizon can look very different without claiming that one institution directly revised the other’s model.

Our own year-end cases: 2027 $55 / $150 / $280; 2028 $40 / $210 / $500; 2029 $30 / $280 / $850 (bear / base / bull). We selected these round values on 27 September 2026, without interpolating from VanEck’s 2030 model or treating 21Shares’ 2026 possible highs as year-end closes.

The base case needs rising transaction-fee value captured by SOL and sustained staking demand; the weak case assumes inflation and low fees dominate; the strong case requires broad paid use and reliable validator infrastructure. Neither network traffic nor a stablecoin transfer total alone guarantees token demand. No probabilities are assigned; outcomes may exceed the range.

VanEck’s October 27, 2023 study models roughly $9.81 in its bear case, $335 in its base case and $3,211.28 in its bull case for 2030. Its base assumes Solana reaches 30% of smart-contract platform activity in the model, while its bear assumes 5% and its bull 80%. These are conditional outputs from 2023, not current spot prices.

The base model estimates about $8.27 billion in network revenue and $6.96 billion in free cash flow to SOL token holders in 2030, applies a terminal multiple to that cash flow, and divides the resulting value by expected token supply. The bull case depends on much stronger adoption and revenue capture; the low bear case illustrates how dramatically the token can reprice when those assumptions fail.

Cheap transactions can attract users and payment flows while generating little protocol revenue per transaction. In VanEck’s 2023 base case, Solana captures only one fifth of the take rate it assumed for Ethereum, and a large share of estimated Solana revenue comes from MEV. This is a model assumption, not a guaranteed flow to every SOL holder.

The protocol’s documentation distinguishes base fees, of which one half is burned, from prioritisation fees, which go to validators. Inflation pays staking rewards and can dilute non-stakers. High transaction volume, application revenue, validator earnings and value accruing to SOL are four different measures. A long-term forecast should trace each step.

On October 1, 2025, 21Shares described a discounted cash-flow framework with aggressive growth assumptions through 2029. With a lower discount rate it estimated about $2,274 per SOL; at a higher rate, about $776. Those are modelled fair-value figures at that research date, not 2030 year-end observations.

Changing the discount rate alone creates a wide range. The report calls $461 and $923 parity examples relative to Ethereum directional benchmarks, explicitly not forecasts. None of these numbers should be inserted into the 2030 VanEck row or silently called a 2028 price target.

21Shares published bear, base and bull levels of $95, $150 and $197 for potential peaks during 2026. Its scenario text ties the outcomes to protocol fee capture, staking demand, macro conditions, stablecoin activity and institutional settlement. The levels describe possible highs within that year, not prices expected at its close.

Reading the two 21Shares pieces together does not produce a revision from $2,274 to $150. The first estimates intrinsic value under a DCF model at a publication date; the second considers a short-term market path. Quoting them as directly competing targets would erase the distinction that makes both documents intelligible.

In its 2026 research, 21Shares reports rising stablecoin and tokenised-asset use on Solana even as some speculative trading cooled. That activity is evidence of demand for the network, but the firm also warns that a high-volume, low-fee settlement rail may capture little economic value in the SOL token.

A useful follow-up checks the fee mix, burn, issuance, staking participation, validator concentration and whether recurring non-speculative applications replace cycles of meme-coin trading. A rise in transaction count by itself does not settle the valuation argument from either VanEck or 21Shares.

VanEck says it may hold the assets it analyses and discloses its team’s SOL ownership; 21Shares issues digital-asset investment products. Commercial exposure is relevant when evaluating optimistic assumptions. The old VanEck research also predates substantial changes in Solana’s usage and fee structure.

A competing chain capturing payments, network outages, lower-than-assumed fees, inflation outpacing effective burn, weaker staking demand, or policy shifts could reduce SOL’s value. The large spread between the 2030 bear and bull cases measures model sensitivity, not a promise of upside.

Archive the VanEck 2023 scenario as the 2023 edition. Label the 21Shares 2025 fair-value estimate and 2026 intrayear levels separately. If a fresh 2030 SOL model appears, add its dated source and assumptions alongside the older research; preserve the revision history.

After the horizon ends, choose the same exchange price source and observation time for every year-end comparison. Do not score a 2030 case as achieved because SOL briefly crossed it during an earlier rally, and do not turn a present-value exercise into a future price target.